Analysts: 'iPad 3' display presents a challenge

Making tablets with a very-high-resolution display in large volumes is posing a challenge for Apple, according to analysts and an Asia-based report.

Two analysts contacted by CNET today said that they don't expect a new version of the iPad, dubbed the iPad 3, until next year because of high-resolution display supply constraints. And a report today from Digitimes made similar claims.

"We have heard that panel makers have had trouble manufacturing panels at efficient yields with the resolutions that Apple is requesting," said Richard Shim, an analyst at DisplaySearch. "There's even been discussion of lowering the resolution to get better yields."

A 9.7-inch tablet display with 2,048x1,536 resolution "has been under development for some time," Rhoda Alexander, an analyst at IHS iSuppli, said in reply to an e-mail query. Alexander said iSuppli has built its projections on a 2012 introduction of an iPad with this kind of very high-resolution display. Apple's iPad 2, announced back in March, has a 9.7-inch display with a resolution of 1,024x768.

Alexander's conclusion is that the iPad 3 will not appear before the first quarter of 2012 because the "higher performance panels present a number of challenges...the panel yields are likely to be substantially lower than that of the iPad 2's panel. It makes no sense for Apple to introduce a supply constrained product in its heaviest demand quarter (third quarter) of the year," Alexander said.

Alexander continued. "The backlight issue presents a substantial challenge as well, both in integrating the higher performance requirements within the form factor requirements and managing the additional power requirements."

The issues described above affect all tablet suppliers, forcing other makers to delay their plans for models with higher resolutions displays too, according to the report in Digitimes.

Earlier this month, Ashok Kumar, an analyst at Rodman & Renshaw, said that Apple had begun production on an incremental upgrade for the iPad 2--and iPad 2 "Premium" for professionals. This is expected to also have a high-resolution screen. It is still possible that Apple brings out a professional model this year because the necessary production volumes for a high-end version of the iPad 2 would be low, Kumar said today.

Comments:

Such a high resolution display does not seem possible at this time. Firstly, a GPU has to have a lot of power to run such a high resolution display. High power consumption on a mobile device isn't a good mix. Secondly, the cost of such a display would be incredibly high - Probably more than the cheapest iPad currently in production. And thirdly, I think that such a display would have been seen first in other devices, such as professional monitors, graphics/drawing tablets, or otherwise. Most computers/laptops top out at 1080p, and anyone who uses a resolution higher than that is an enthusiast, or a professional.

There are just too many reasons why I think an iPad with a retina display would not be possible within a year. 3 years, maybe, but not not now.

My opinion:

I don't think the 2,048x1,536 resolution is must-have or necessary, but if there's no technical revolution, there is no Apple. Jobs have the ability to make impossible possible. Let's wait and see.

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